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Thread: SNP Pack to be released for L2!

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgmayka View Post
    Ytree.net also portrays FGC4183 as a brother, not a son, of Z49. I must now suspect that the L2 SNP Pack is giving false positives for Z49.

    Hello lgmayka,
    As I have already mentioned in another thread, with high probability, the kit n 195719 belongs to the following northern European group:

    U152> L2> Z49, Z68> S8183, FGC20812> FGC31474> FGC20796> S12993, FGC20774, FGC20777

    This is not incompatible with the fact this kit is also positive for FGC4183 (simple coincidence whose probability is high but not extremely high).
    I point out to you that also the kit n 414339 belongs to the subgroup FGC20777+ group. This kit has a similar feature: although it is Z49+ (+ al), it is also positive for FGC5344, a mutation that, along with other 9, defines another L2 subgroup (my subgroup).

    As regards the subgroup in question I can only point out that it is a pity that the kits that meet the following requirements:
    DYS19 = 15
    DYS448 = 17

    do not undergo the specific test for FGC20777, in my opinion the chance to be positive is very high;

  2. #22
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    Hello lgmayka,
    I add this consideration.
    Some time ago I made probabilistic calculations and I have verified that if a group consisting of persons of which you only know the positivity for L2 is subjected to the test for all first mutations that define subgroups of L2 (circa n 20), the possibility to have a false positive is not very high.
    The (almost) sure it occurs only if there is a coincidence of two successive mutations.
    For example, I had my doubts that the kit n 408671 belonged to Richard Group (FGC10516). But when I have verified that this kit is positive not only for FGC10516, but also for FGC10536 and FGC10543, I realized that I was wrong (the probability of a false positive is nearly impossible with 3 consecutive mutations).

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgmayka View Post
    Ytree.net also portrays FGC4183 as a brother, not a son, of Z49. I must now suspect that the L2 SNP Pack is giving false positives for Z49.
    I am also incorrectly FGC4183+, though correctly Z49-, in my just arrived R1b-L2 SNP Pack results. Everything else is correct, FGC5301+, FGC5303+, FGC5306+, FGC5308+, L2+, U152+ based on FGC, Sanger, and other tests.

    So for my little subclade I am am happy there is test with four SNP whose age could be from 1000 years to L2 or ZZ48.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by haleaton View Post
    I am also incorrectly FGC4183+, though correctly Z49-, in my just arrived R1b-L2 SNP Pack results. Everything else is correct, FGC5301+, FGC5303+, FGC5306+, FGC5308+, L2+, U152+ based on FGC, Sanger, and other tests.

    So for my little subclade I am am happy there is test with four SNP whose age could be from 1000 years to L2 or ZZ48.
    Edit: Also looks like only 14 samples in the first round of results.

  5. #25
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    A further confirmation to what I said earlier:
    The Kit No. 305360 (Andrew Liston,) is positive for these mutations formally incompatible:
    a) BY2824 (defines the subgroup U152> L2> BY2823, BY2824, BY2825, BY2826, BY2827);

    b) FGC14641 (defines the subgroup U152> L2> DF90 et al.);

    This kit belongs to FGC14641 subgroup and not to subgroup BY2824. This is because it shares other mutations that define a subgroup of FGC14641 (BY3490 + al., and other typical STR of this subgroup).

  6. #26
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    So are posters saying that the FGC4183+ result is incorrect, even though it well fits the ancestry? The FGC4183 clade has plenty of Polish members, as expected.

    Acque agitate is suggesting that #195719 belongs to the FGC2077 clade. If true, this shows how foolish it was to offer a so-called L2 SNP Pack that doesn't actually descend into the subclades--and hence makes reliable interpretation impossible!

    I must again point out my surprise that the so-called L2 SNP Pack does not test any of the subclades of Z49 or FGC4183.

    In short, this SNP pack appears to have been a total waste of money, because it is has not given us certainty about anything.

  7. The Following User Says Thank You to lgmayka For This Useful Post:

     Agamemnon (05-25-2016)

  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgmayka View Post
    So are posters saying that the FGC4183+ result is incorrect, even though it well fits the ancestry? The FGC4183 clade has plenty of Polish members, as expected.

    Acque agitate is suggesting that #195719 belongs to the FGC2077 clade. If true, this shows how foolish it was to offer a so-called L2 SNP Pack that doesn't actually descend into the subclades--and hence makes reliable interpretation impossible!

    I must again point out my surprise that the so-called L2 SNP Pack does not test any of the subclades of Z49 or FGC4183.

    In short, this SNP pack appears to have been a total waste of money, because it is has not given us certainty about anything.

    Hello lgmayka,
    I understand your displeasure but I'm not totally agree with you.
    I seem to remember that:
    a) the L2 pack has been conceived and designed for the kits that are L2+ and Z49-, Z367-;
    b) For the kits Z49+ Z367+ FTDNA will realizate a specific pack in the future;

    The current L2 pack is definitely not a perfect product, but has the distinction to offer a sufficient depth to people who are not going to pay over $ 500 for Bigy or FGC.
    I was one of the pioneers of the test at FGC and I would do it again a thousand times despite the cost. I am, however, aware that not all people have my propensity to spend for genetic investigations.

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acque agitate View Post
    a) the L2 pack has been conceived and designed for the kits that are L2+ and Z49-, Z367-;
    How in the world is an L2+ supposed to know his Z49 or Z367 status without a SNP pack? FTDNA apparently "forgot" that it offered a Deep Clade test long ago, which tested L2. Many men therefore know that they are L2+ but have no knowledge of subclade status.

    Moreover, I must repeat: Because of conflicting results, this L2 SNP Pack does not tell us the Z49 status with any certainty either. Indeed, I now wonder whether FTDNA's individual SNP test for Z49 works properly or not. Have we crosschecked such results against other products like Y Elite? Perhaps R-Y18894 is not really Z49+ ? (Its status relies on a single individual Z49 SNP test result.)
    Quote Originally Posted by Acque agitate View Post
    b) For the kits Z49+ Z367+ FTDNA will realizate a specific pack in the future;
    First, you can be sure that the men who blew $100 on this L2 SNP Pack (after blowing $100 on the old Deep Clade) are not going to blow yet another $100, perhaps to be fooled again.

    Second, please understand that in the case of #195719, we still don't know whether he is Z49+, FGC4183+, both, or neither. His SNP pack results do not square with what we think we know about the haplotree from other testing, so we have effectively learned nothing.
    Last edited by lgmayka; 05-25-2016 at 10:08 PM.

  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgmayka View Post
    How in the world is an L2+ supposed to know his Z49 or Z367 status without a SNP pack? FTDNA apparently "forgot" that it offered a Deep Clade test long ago, which tested L2. Many men therefore know that they are L2+ but have no knowledge of subclade status.

    Moreover, I must repeat: Because of conflicting results, this L2 SNP Pack does not tell us the Z49 status with any certainty either. Indeed, I now wonder whether FTDNA's individual SNP test for Z49 works properly or not. Have we crosschecked such results against other products like Y Elite? Perhaps R-Y18894 is not really Z49+ ? (Its status relies on a single individual Z49 SNP test result.)

    First, you can be sure that the men who blew $100 on this L2 SNP Pack (after blowing $100 on the old Deep Clade) are not going to blow yet another $100, perhaps to be fooled again.

    Second, please understand that in the case of #195719, we still don't know whether he is Z49+, FGC4183+, both, or neither. His SNP pack results do not square with what we think we know about the haplotree from other testing, so we have effectively learned nothing.
    You can blame me Lawrence. I'm just trying to exploit the technologies that FTDNA has to get the most value out of them for the most folks. If Z49 as an SNP is not working, that's another matter. They should rerun their tests for that for free in those cases.

    I haven't posted about this on the R1b-YDNA yahoo group for a while, but this on the Activity Feed pinned post.

    I'll pull out the coverage strategy from that post.
    As I understand them, key principles of FTDNA's coverage strategy are:
    1. Complete coverage for R1b subclades.
    2. No more than two SNP Packs needed to identify a terminal (most youthful) terminal haplogroup. There are a couple of gaps in this so they will need more updates.
    3. Multiple entry points based on individuals current SNP and STR test results.
    4. Robust support for many SNPs including SNPs under investigation or phylogenetc equivalent blocks that are likely to be busted.

    The R1b-M343 Backbone Pack generally has all of the "bridge" or "pointer" SNPs in it to get you to the only other pack you need to order. That's what strategy point #2 above is about. The U152 and L2 packs should have pointers in them to so if you jump in with say the L2 pack you'll find out if you need the Z49, for example.


    https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/r-1b/activity-feed
    "It is my understand that a couple of new U152 SNP Packs are about to be released.

    Current Pack line-up:
    R1b-M343 Backbone (bridges to ALL of the below)
    R1b-P312 top-layer and misc (DF19,L238,DF99)
    R1b-Z2103 (old L23* or Armenian Haplotype)

    R1b-DF27 support:
    R1b-DF27 top-layer and misc subclades (bridges to the below)
    R1b-Z198 (SRY2627 & L165)
    R1b-Z209 (North-South Cluster & Basque M153)

    R1b-L21 support:
    R1b-L21 top-layer and misc subclades (bridges to the below)
    R1b-CTS4466 (Irish II/South)
    R1b-DF41
    R1b-DF49 (xM222)
    R1b-L1065 (Scots Modal & most L1335 people)
    R1b-L555 (Clan Irwin under Z251)
    R1b-L513 (11-13 Combo)
    R1b-M222 (Northwest Irish)
    R1b-Z246 (DF25, DF5)
    R1b-Z253 (Irish III & Irish IV)
    R1b-Z255 (Irish Sea/Leinster)
    R1b-Z3000 (Clan Colla)
    DF21 pack to come.

    R1b-U152 support:
    R1b-Z43 (~Z56)
    R1b-L2 (xZ367 xZ49) top-layer and misc subclades
    R1b-Z367
    R1b-Z49
    More to come for U152.

    R1b-U106 support:
    R1b-U106 top-layer and misc subclades (bridges to the below)
    R1b-L47
    R1b-L48 (xL47 xZ8 xZ326)
    R1b-Z8
    R1b-Z18
    R1b-Z156
    R1b-Z326

    As I understand them, key principles of FTDNA's coverage strategy are:
    1. Complete coverage for R1b subclades.
    2. No more than two SNP Packs needed to identify a terminal (most youthful) terminal haplogroup. There are a couple of gaps in this so they will need more updates.
    3. Multiple entry points based on individuals current SNP and STR test results.
    4. Robust support for many SNPs including SNPs under investigation or phylogenetc equivalent blocks that are likely to be busted.

    The SNP Packs are economical ways to test for known SNPs. However, Big Y has the important benefit of discovering your own lineage of SNPs, be they known or unknown (new). Big Y should be considered if you can afford it.

    To order an SNP Pack, log into myFTDNA, click on the blue "Upgrade" button, then click on the blue "Buy Now" button in "Advanced Tests." Next, enter "SNP Pack" in "Select a Product" and a list of packs will show up. If you order you will receive a convoluted warning message that you will have to click through by hitting "Order Now". This message is not correct but is intended to make you think twice. If in in doubt, ask here what pack you want."


    I think FTDNA needs a product description (paragraph) for every pack so besides listing the SNPs included on the tree and those that are exploratory you will. Last summer I recommended such a paragraph with some terminology that labels the pack products consistently. For example, they like to call the M343 pack the M343 Backbone pack. I recommended they call the L2 pack the L2 "top-layer and misc. subclades" pack and that they call the packs like Z49 the Z49 "terminal" or "subclade" pack, although I don't like terminal. They need something kinds of labeling like that.

    Of course, they didn't listen to me on that stuff. They actually did follow suit on the DF49x pack and they labeled it the "DF49xM222 SNP Pack". In a similar vernacular, the L2 pack should have been the "L2xZ367xZ49 SNP Pack" or better the "L2xZ367xZ49 Subclades SNP Pack"


    As always, it's very important for people to join the various forums and ask questions. Everybody who is R1b (R-M343, R-P25 or R-M269) of any type or any downstream subclade is invited to the R1b-YDNA yahoo group to ask these kinds of questions.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 05-25-2016 at 10:45 PM.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    As always, it's very important for people to join the various forums and ask questions. Everybody who is R1b (R-M343, R-P25 or R-M269) of any type or any downstream subclade is invited to the R1b-YDNA yahoo group to ask these kinds of questions.
    This is more than an information issue.

    1) Many people already spent $100 on the Deep Clade-R test, and were found to be L2+ . (In fact, some of them probably also spent an earlier $100 on the original Deep Clade.) Apparently, planners expected such people to pay another $200.

    2) Either Z49 or FGC4183, or both, are apparently not working properly in this SNP pack. Saying that FTDNA "should" rerun the packs will not make it happen--partly because FTDNA has apparently already taken the position that the Z49 result is correct, and the FGC4183 result should be ignored. But of course, (a) we don't know whether that's true, and (b) if it's true, then members of FGC4183 are not getting much for their money.

    EDIT: I now notice that #195719 does have results for some subclades of FGC4183:
    FGC4166-
    FGC4220-
    FGC8158-
    FGC8178-

    This increases the probability that the positive FGC4183 result is incorrect, and that #195719 is indeed Z49+ .
    Last edited by lgmayka; 05-25-2016 at 11:27 PM.

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