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Thread: SNP timeline

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    SNP timeline

    I'm currently putting together a bit of a timeline for historic branching in SNP (and ultimately doing my best to give them approximate coordinates). I have seen mention of estimated branching rates so i wondered if this had already been done and if there was a source online for estimated dates of origin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bdeed View Post
    I'm currently putting together a bit of a timeline for historic branching in SNP (and ultimately doing my best to give them approximate coordinates). I have seen mention of estimated branching rates so i wondered if this had already been done and if there was a source online for estimated dates of origin.
    There are a lot better experts out there about this topic, but here are methodologies and scenarios where it works better:

    There are YSTR only models but these really lose accuracy in the distant past due to massive parallel and backwards mutations being hidden.
    There are YSNP only models which are better these days in the 2,000 to 4,000 year range.
    For analysis below 1,000 years it gets very problematic due to not enough time to create better statistical reliability.

    These are all the math based methodologies which work really well before surname creation (1,000 years ago for Irish and Scottish clans). But once you get near genealogical timeframe 1,000 to 1,500 years (for Irish and Scottish), if you have enough YSTR testers and 20 to 30 % tested with YSNPs for single signature haplogroups, you can start drawing descent descendant charts with some accuracy. Once branches are dominated by one surname, you then know that you have transitioned into the time frame where our ancestors first started using surnames - around 1,000 years ago for Irish and Scottish (there are still significant variations even here).

    Michael Jost posts regularly for L21 TMRCA analysis and is one of the best in this area (this math is not for the faint of heart). He regalarly posts in the L21 Yahoo forum:

    https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/...messages/31757

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    That's great thank you for the link it'll certainly get me on the way!

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