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Thread: Your opinion where oldest M269 and subclades will be found

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    Your opinion where oldest M269 and subclades will be found

    In a few recent threads, there is often a critique of those expressing an opinion in favor of various theories e.g. Steppe vs. Atlantic origin.

    But it's sometimes unclear what the critic's opposing theory is. It would be helpful to understand the thought process of others of the path from M269 to L23 to L51 to L11/L151/P310 to U106 and P312 to U152 and DF27 etc

    Don't worry that someone will later quote your post and hold it against you; because I guarantee they will

    It's only an opinion.

    So where do you think the oldest sample for the following haplogroups will be found?

    Haplogroup/Yfull formed date range 95% CI
    M269 / 15200-12000 ybp:
    L23 / 7300-5500 ybp:
    L51 / 6900-5600 ybp:
    L11 | L151|P310 / 6400-5200 ybp:
    U106: 5400-4500 ybp:
    P312: 5400-4500 ybp:
    L21: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF27: 4900-4000 ybp:
    U152: 4900-4000 ybp:
    L238: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF19: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF99: 4900-4000 ybp:

    Even if you disagree with how they are defined below, try to use the following geographic definitions so that we all have a common understanding:
    -Central Asian Steppe (Siberia and and Fomer Soviet Central Asian Republics )
    -Pontic–Caspian Steppe (Moldova, Ukraine, Russia and northwestern Kazakhstan to the Ural Mountains)
    -Eastern Europe (Belarus, Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic republics, Greece, former Yugoslavia, Albania, European Turkey)
    -Central Europe (Germany, Austria, Nordic Countries, Italy, Switzerland)
    -Western Europe (British Isles, Low Countries, France, Iberia)
    -North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya Egypt)
    -Levant (Israel/Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria)
    -Anatolia (Asian Turkey)
    -Caucasus: (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Dagistan, Ossetia, Chechnya etc)
    -Southwest Asia: (Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, etc)

    I'll be brave and go first:

    M269: Central Asian Steppe
    L23: Pontic–Caspian Steppe (Ukraine or Moldova)
    L51: Eastern Europe (Romania, former Yugoslavia, Hungary)
    L151: Eastern Europe (Hungary, Czech Rep, Slovakia)
    U106: Eastern/Central Europe (Northern Germany, Czech Rep, Poland)
    P312: Eastern/Central Europe (Southern Germany, Austria, Czech Rep)
    L21: Western/Central Europe (Northern France, Low Countries, Western Germany)
    DF27: Western/Central Europe (Southern Germany or Eastern France)
    U152: Central Europe (Southern Germany, Czech Rep, or Austria)
    L238: Central Europe
    DF19: Central Europe
    DF99: Central Europe

    The above is obviously based on the Steppe theory. If I turn out to be wrong my ego will survive
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    Lets clarify that Villabruna is most likely P 297, but of course, it could be an extinct side-branch not ancestral to the M269. But then again, M269 could not have existed in 12, 000 BC.

    As for the later & more relevant details, I have no real convictions. Part of me likes the idea that L51 / BB blended in Vucedol: millions of western European men having a 'secondary homeland' in the north Balkans

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravetto-Danubian View Post
    Lets clarify that Villabruna is most likely P 297, but of course, it could be an extinct side-branch not ancestral to the M269. But then again, M269 could not have existed in 12, 000 BC.

    As for the later & more relevant details, I have no real convictions. Part of me likes the idea that L51 / BB blended in Vucedol: millions of western European men having a 'secondary homeland' in the north Balkans
    You are well versed in the latest info..Humor me and take a shot in the dark think of it as a betting pool in a sporting event.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    In a few recent threads, there is often a critique of those expressing an opinion in favor of various theories e.g. Steppe vs. Atlantic origin.

    But it's sometimes unclear what the critic's opposing theory is. It would be helpful to understand the thought process of others of the path from M269 to L23 to L51 to L11/L151/P310 to U106 and P312 to U152 and DF27 etc

    Don't worry that someone will later quote your post and hold it against you; because I guarantee they will

    It's only an opinion.

    So where do you think the oldest sample for the following haplogroups will be found?

    Haplogroup/Yfull formed date range 95% CI
    M269 / 15200-12000 ybp:
    L23 / 7300-5500 ybp:
    L51 / 6900-5600 ybp:
    L11 | L151|P310 / 6400-5200 ybp:
    U106: 5400-4500 ybp:
    P312: 5400-4500 ybp:
    L21: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF27: 4900-4000 ybp:
    U152: 4900-4000 ybp:
    L238: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF19: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF99: 4900-4000 ybp:

    Even if you disagree with how they are defined below, try to use the following geographic definitions so that we all have a common understanding:
    -Central Asian Steppe (Siberia and and Fomer Soviet Central Asian Republics )
    -Pontic–Caspian Steppe (Moldova, Ukraine, Russia and northwestern Kazakhstan to the Ural Mountains)
    -Eastern Europe (Belarus, Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic republics, Greece, former Yugoslavia, Albania, European Turkey)
    -Central Europe (Germany, Austria, Nordic Countries, Italy, Switzerland)
    -Western Europe (British Isles, Low Countries, France, Iberia)
    -North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya Egypt)
    -Levant (Israel/Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria)
    -Anatolia (Asian Turkey)
    -Caucasus: (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Dagistan, Ossetia, Chechnya etc)
    -Southwest Asia: (Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, etc)

    I'll be brave and go first:

    M269: Central Asian Steppe
    L23: Pontic–Caspian Steppe (Ukraine or Moldova)
    L51: Eastern Europe (Romania, former Yugoslavia, Hungary)
    L151: Eastern Europe (Hungary, Czech Rep, Slovakia)
    U106: Eastern/Central Europe (Northern Germany, Czech Rep, Poland)
    P312: Eastern/Central Europe (Southern Germany, Austria, Czech Rep)
    L21: Western/Central Europe (Northern France, Low Countries, Western Germany)
    DF27: Western/Central Europe (Southern Germany or Eastern France)
    U152: Central Europe (Southern Germany, Czech Rep, or Austria)
    L238: Central Europe
    DF19: Central Europe
    DF99: Central Europe

    The above is obviously based on the Steppe theory. If I turn out to be wrong my ego will survive
    My opinion is spot on with yours. P312 born somewhere along the Danube, moving west. U152, DF27, and DF99 born around the headwaters of the Danube. DF99 staying put while U152 and DF27 moved into there current places of concentrations around 1500 to 500 B.C.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    In a few recent threads, there is often a critique of those expressing an opinion in favor of various theories e.g. Steppe vs. Atlantic origin.

    But it's sometimes unclear what the critic's opposing theory is. It would be helpful to understand the thought process of others of the path from M269 to L23 to L51 to L11/L151/P310 to U106 and P312 to U152 and DF27 etc

    Don't worry that someone will later quote your post and hold it against you; because I guarantee they will

    It's only an opinion.

    So where do you think the oldest sample for the following haplogroups will be found?

    Haplogroup/Yfull formed date range 95% CI
    M269 / 15200-12000 ybp:
    L23 / 7300-5500 ybp:
    L51 / 6900-5600 ybp:
    L11 | L151|P310 / 6400-5200 ybp:
    U106: 5400-4500 ybp:
    P312: 5400-4500 ybp:
    L21: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF27: 4900-4000 ybp:
    U152: 4900-4000 ybp:
    L238: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF19: 4900-4000 ybp:
    DF99: 4900-4000 ybp:

    Even if you disagree with how they are defined below, try to use the following geographic definitions so that we all have a common understanding:
    -Central Asian Steppe (Siberia and and Fomer Soviet Central Asian Republics )
    -Pontic–Caspian Steppe (Moldova, Ukraine, Russia and northwestern Kazakhstan to the Ural Mountains)
    -Eastern Europe (Belarus, Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic republics, Greece, former Yugoslavia, Albania, European Turkey)
    -Central Europe (Germany, Austria, Nordic Countries, Italy, Switzerland)
    -Western Europe (British Isles, Low Countries, France, Iberia)
    -North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya Egypt)
    -Levant (Israel/Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria)
    -Anatolia (Asian Turkey)
    -Caucasus: (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Dagistan, Ossetia, Chechnya etc)
    -Southwest Asia: (Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, etc)

    I'll be brave and go first:

    M269: Central Asian Steppe
    L23: Pontic–Caspian Steppe (Ukraine or Moldova)
    L51: Eastern Europe (Romania, former Yugoslavia, Hungary)
    L151: Eastern Europe (Hungary, Czech Rep, Slovakia)
    U106: Eastern/Central Europe (Northern Germany, Czech Rep, Poland)
    P312: Eastern/Central Europe (Southern Germany, Austria, Czech Rep)
    L21: Western/Central Europe (Northern France, Low Countries, Western Germany)
    DF27: Western/Central Europe (Southern Germany or Eastern France)
    U152: Central Europe (Southern Germany, Czech Rep, or Austria)
    L238: Central Europe
    DF19: Central Europe
    DF99: Central Europe

    The above is obviously based on the Steppe theory. If I turn out to be wrong my ego will survive
    I pretty much agree though I think the origin of P312 is possibly further East and any thing down stream grew quickly once settled. Having said that they'll probably be found where you said. I don't know about DF27, it seems it was very mobile and wide spread, I can't help thinking of along with horses so maybe further East or North East. That's just a real shot in the dark.

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    I expect the oldest M269 lineages to show up on the Pontic-Caspian steppe or in Central Asia, in turn I suspect the oldest L23 lineages arose on the Pontic-Caspian steppe, the earliest L51 lineages would've emerged on the steppe alongside Z2103. I also think P312 and U106 emerged in Eastern Europe, the former closer to the Pannonian Basin and the latter closer to the Polish plain. The main branches of P312, ZZ11 for instance, logically should've emerged in the Pannonian Basin. Just my 2 cents.
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    R1b-M269 15200-12000 ybp: Somewhere in this area:

    EuropeEpigravettianR1b.jpg

    R1b-L23(xL51,Z2103): Born circa 9000-8000 ybp somewhere here:

    R1b-L23_Early_Neolithic_displacement.jpg

    L51: Western Europe, probably somewhere in here:

    L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003_m.jpg

    L151: Western Europe. probably somewhere in here:

    R1b-L11.jpg

    Here is what I think happened at the beginning of the Bronze Age when the Yamnaya people expanded bringing R1b-Z2103 into Europe.

    Beginning_of_Bronze_Age_Expansions.jpg

    Basically, initially Iberian Beakers will likely carry R1b-DF27+perhaps some R1b-P312, these will have no Steppe component and will be nonIE speaking. R1b-P312(xDF27,L21,U152) gets IE in Central Europe, so does R1b-L21, and R1b-U152 in their positions shown in map above. R1b-L21 migrates to British Isles. R1b-U152 also moves around. R1b-DF27 in Iberia gets IE from maritime beaker R1b-L21, and also from moving around to the North and mixing around with other clades. Afterwards high mobility pretty much sends R1b-P312 derived clades to every corner of Europe.
    Last edited by jeanL; 05-20-2016 at 05:10 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jeanL
    ....
    Thanks Jean. As they say a picture is worth a thousand words. I better understand the chronology of your theory.

    After I started this thread, I read these posts between Alan and you which shed more light on your thinking.

    JeanL
    ...R1b-Z2103 does appear in low frequencies all throughout Western Europe; I said that back in 2012 over 4 years ago even before they found R1b-Z2103* and it was just labeled as R1b-L23* which you and others used as some sort of proof that it was ancestral to Western European R1b-L51; in case you seem to have forgotten. I said that there was great differentiation STR wise between the Swiss R1b-L23* and the Caucasian ones; that R1b-L23 was probably broken into two factions at the arrival of the Neolithic; one taking refuge in Western Europe; the other one in the Steppe. One went on to become R1b-L51; the other R1b-Z2103. Later the R1b-L23* folks from the Caucasus arrived and IndoEuropeanized the Western half of Europe; perhaps being pushed from the East by their R1a distant cousins.

    More of my old hypothesis here from May 30; 2012:


    It is likely that when the farmers first arrived to the Balkans they pushed some R1b-L23 folks Northeastwards, and hence why Romania gets a high variance. As for R1b-L51, I don’t think it existed yet, it probably emerged later on while hiding in Western Europe, the same would apply to R1b-L11, in fact neither one of those two experienced a sudden expansion, so it is likely they originated in a very small population that wasn’t that successful. As for out-reproducing the farmers, did the hunter-gatherers in the Steppe’s learn the technology from the farmers, and then conquered all of Europe. What is wrong with some of those folks that have been sitting around in Central Europe for a while learning the technology from the incoming invaders. Are hunter gatherers in Western Europe somehow dumber than those in the Steppe, such that the former can learn anything from the farmers, yet the latter manage to conquer all of Europe.

    [...]

    Yes meanwhile, the R1b-L23(xL51) folks that were displaced towards the Steppes by the incoming farmers become the half story of the PIE group, the other half being R1a, and they go everywhere, but apparently just as they stop abruptly in Iran-Pakistan, they do so too around Central Europe, however the fact that some R1b-L23(xL51) is still found today in Western European shows that some of them did mingle around their distant cousins, and voila that explains why some R1b-P312 bearers are nonIndoEuropean speakers, whereas others aren't. If the R1b-L23(xL51) taught PIE to their cousins in Central Europe, then you get Celtic-Italic, you name it, expansions to explain the presence of IE languages in Western Europe. Whereas if R1b-L51 is born of PIE speaker R1b-L23 coming from the steppes in the Bronze age we would have a hard time explaining why groups with 80%+ of R1b-L51+ speak a nonIndoEuropean language.
    Alan
    if there is a common ancestor in 4400BC between Z2103 that is later found in Yamnaya and L51 then we would need to find a common thread that fed both into Yamnaya and into wherever L51 was no earlier than 4400BC. Note also that by 4400BC some popular models suggest archaic PIE had already emerged. 4400BC also long post-dates the spread of farming.

    As we have no idea where or what culture L51 was in 4400BC-2800BC then we have to work from what we know about Z2103. We know it was in Yamnaya and therefore must have been in one of a (apparently the dominant) element that went into Yamnaya. The genesis of Yamanya would appear to be Repin with Caucasus input coming up the Don and Volga. IF Z2103/its L23 ancestor wasnt in Repin then it was likely in the Caucasus. IMO if you wish to see L51 or its immediate L23 branch ancestor as pushing west from somewhere other than the steppe then the Caucasus post-4400BC. How much post-4400BC is another question because branching of a y tree does not necessarily synchonise with geographical separation. I think its fair to say that noone has ever suggested the Caucasus area as a major centre of post 4400BC expansion until the Maykop era copper age and later which is at least several centuries (exact dating still seems disputed) after that 4400BC date. So that pushes us likely to the post-4000BC era EVEN if one takes the stance that the L23 element in Yamnaya is not native steppe and owes more to Maykop etc. At the very least this would appear to indicate that movement west of L51 is very unlikely to have preceded the spread of copper west. Copper only appears in Italy around 3500BC and southern France and Iberia several centuries later.
    http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthre...l=1#post155083

    And your response
    Your whole hypothesis is based on the premised that R1b-L51 and R1b-Z2103 share a common ancestor circa 4400 BC; if this date is pushed back then the scenario I explained back in 2012 can work; otherwise if we assume that the TMRCA based on modern day mutation rates and calibrations from a few ancient genomes are spot on; then you have a point. My whole premise derives from a nonrigid assumption when it comes to TMRCA for R1b-L23. I assumed that it was born in Europe and that it splitting point happened during the arrival of farming in the region. With some going East(R1b-L23-pre-Z2103+other R1b combos) and others West (R1b-L23-preL51). Remember that EHG do have substantial amounts of WHG in them; if the WHG had R1b as one of their carrying haplogroups then it makes sense. This is why if we take the result of el Portalon as being R1b-M269 as being valid; then my prediction is that the more we sample Western Europe the more we are going to start seeing the singleton R1b lineages pop out amongst a sea of G2a and I2.

    Ultimately the massive expansion of the R1b-L11 sublineages is due to the Bell Beaker culture; but I believe they were IndoEuropeanized by their neighbors in Central Europe; refluxing back into Southern Europe and Western Europe with the Steppe component in them. The fact that we also see an asymmetry when it comes to the Steppe component with areas where the R1b-L21 lineages are predominant having greater amount of the Steppe component that areas where R1b-DF27 is the majority lineage present.
    http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthre...l=1#post155088

    So in a nutshell we have the two competing theories.

    Until I read your quoted post above I was struggling to understand how the From the West theory geographically reconciled Z2103, L51, and their common ancestor L23. i.e. your answer to the valid question: if Z2103 was found in Pontic-Stepp then shouldn't L51 and L23 be nearby?
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 05-20-2016 at 05:57 PM.
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    This is my straw man M269 migration map and L21 defining mutations timeline.

    image.jpg

    image.jpg

    The latter is adapted from several years ago so needs a little tweaking.
    Last edited by Heber; 05-20-2016 at 09:16 PM. Reason: L21 defining mutations
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    .Humor me and take a shot in the dark
    OK ! I don't think I can add too much more discussion over what has already been sad by various learned posters here. Indeed, the phylogeny of R1b places it in the east, ultimately, so the question is how, when & why did it arrive ?

    But I will make some remarks about BB culture, & the standing of our current BB sample set (Germany & Czech). I have commented on this a couple of times elsewhere, and I note some of the senior most members here have already had ample discussion on the topic for several years, so apologies for repeating material.
    BUt a recap is worthwhile, given what we now know (& don't know) from aDNA.

    First of all, we should note that most (? all) of our Germany BB samples are from eastern Germany (Kromsdorf, Quedlinburg are in Thuringia / Saxony -Anhalt, resp).
    Secondly, and more importantly, is I simply fail to see a link between Yamnaya & BB to support the Danubian route, that is, from eastern Hungary to Germany via the north Alpine corridor. Rather, at present I am very much inclined to view the BB phenomenon as a fusion of middle-late Neolithic western European groups with 'new' arrivals from across the north European plain - for archaeological & genetic reasons. Gimbutas' idea that BB = Yamnaya + Vucedol finds little support these days; and there is little doubt that BB in eastern and Southeastern Europe is an intrusive phenomenon, arriving from the west "fully formed" and late during the BB horizon, c. 2200 BC.

    * the western-most extent of Yamnaya ends in Hungary. West of this - along our Danube corridor - we would still find mid-Neolithic type cultures in Austria, western Hungary, southern Germany, Switzerland (baden and baden offshoots, Cham, Rivnac, Altheim cultures, etc.) The earliest possible "steppe-like" admixture probably only arrived with CWC, sometime after 2800 BC, as that is what archaeology would suggest (ie CWC eventually reached Austria/ Slovakia from the northeast (Poland), but Yamnaya (from Hungary) never did).

    * we have only 2 samples from this region at this time, actually more like 1.5. A Baden culture sample ("CO1") from Hungary dating to 2800 BC (ie within the main time frame of Yamnaya in Hungary/ Balkans); and it shows no EHG admixture.
    image.jpg
    image.jpg

    The 2nd sample is that Vucedol sample from Dr Nagy's PhD, but this was only SNP tested. It was R1b-M343, but not further tested, and no genomic analysis was done. It also dated to c. 2800 BC.

    * If Steppe/ EHG admixture did not arrive via Hungary - Austria - Germany, then the other possibility is across northern European plain. Indeed, although still a matter of controversy, several of the non-Maritime Beaker ceramics in BB are seen to have similarities to Corded Ware and its slight predecessor - Globular Amphora. But of course, CWC is all R1a-M417 & derived.

    Lets take a look at eastern Germany on "the eve of BB phenomenon"
    Germany 3000 BC.jpg

    We see a dense mosaic of different cultures, many of which continue from the Middle Neolithic, & the only eastern, new arrival is GAC. If GAC has steppe admixture, then its miscegenation with MNE German groups might explain BB; otherwise it'd had to have been the slightly later CWC groups. I guess what this suggests to me is that M269 was in central Europe earlier than the Yamnaya period - arriving either from the steppe by way of something like GAC or a CWC 'vanguard', or some direct Yamnaya -> central Germany migration (no clear trail, but a couple of kurgan looking burials have been found, as if directly transplanted from Moldova). The other option is something like Jean L's diagram suggesting a yet unsampled Late Neolithic migration from southern Europe (? Balkans). Indeed, we have no real Balkan samples , but at least a couple of mtDNA studies suggest that there was a late Neolithic migration into Europe from western Asia, erasing the earlier 'classic farmers' of the Starcevo-LBK horizon, who were G2a -dominant. We should also like more samples from northern Italy & the Alpine region, as a some of the BB traditions (? copper Daggers, etc) appear to be of a proud little Alpine Copper Metallurgy tradition which survived & flourished after the major Balkan centres collapsed c. 42-4000 BC. Of course, I should not exclude the possibility that Yamnaya simply did migrate up the Danube from Hungary, but possibly bypassing the Danube littoral and going directly to Germany.

    Lastly, we should be aware that as we get more DNA, and realise some of the limitations of the modelling we have up to now taken for granted, our perception of the overall picture might change. Discussions on Eurogenes have noted some differences in ancestry proportions depending on which programme is used, and which data included. It appears still to be an 'at feel' approach, although nothing too drastically will change. For example, one user arrived at this for German BB:

    "Hungary_HG" 43.9
    "Basal_Eurasian" 26.7
    "AfontovaGora3" 13.25
    "MA1" 9.75
    "Bichon" 6.3
    "Esan_Nigeria" 0.1
    "Atayal" 0
    "Villabruna" 0
    "Loschbour" 0
    distance=0.014126

    I think it is also possible that what we have been thinking as steppe/ Yamnaya admixture is really referring to something else, or has subsumed within it a more diverse, far-reaching and older sub-stratas. I cannot but help think that once we get more aDNA from elsewhere - like Greece, Copper Aga Anatolia, early BA Armenia, Iran, etc; there will be little actual steppe admixture (? < 15%) in these regions, and that major demographic impacts came from somewhere else.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Gravetto-Danubian; 05-21-2016 at 01:54 AM.

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