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Thread: R1b subclade prediction

  1. #1
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    Question R1b subclade prediction

    I upgraded Y12 markers to Y37 markers and have just received new STR results.

    Do you know any predictor which will allow me to roughly predict my subclade?

    I guess that something more than "R1b-M269" can be deduced from 37 markers?

    If not then I will order SNP Pack.

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    Also my new matches after receiving these Y37 results are interesting:



    I have a 99.44% probability that I share a common paternal ancestor with Mr. E. Chisholm and a 99.44% probability that I share such an ancestor with Mr. W. J. Chisholm within the last 24 generations (which if I'm not mistaken, is ca. 600 years).

    And I have a 99.36% probability that I share a common paternal ancestor with one Mr. Oliver, and also a 98.03% probability that I share a common paternal ancestor with another Mr. Oliver - in both cases, as well within the last 24 generations / 600 years.

    Apparently all of my 37 marker matches are Scotsmen:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clan_Chisholm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_(Scottish_surname)

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    Scots in Poland or Poles in Scotland?:

    http://www.krakowpost.com/7881/2014/...es-in-scotland

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    STRs (in FTDNA order):

    Panel 1 - 13 24 14 10 11-14 12 12 11 13 13 29
    Panel 2 - 17 9-9 11 11 26 15 19 32 15-15-17-17
    Panel 3 - 10 11 19-23 15 15 18 17 36-37 12 12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    I upgraded Y12 markers to Y37 markers and have just received new STR results.

    Do you know any predictor which will allow me to roughly predict my subclade?

    I guess that something more than "R1b-M269" can be deduced from 37 markers?

    If not then I will order SNP Pack.
    This probably won't sound appealing but you might consider upgrading to 67 STRs. In the R1b project we actually recommend 111 now but consider 67 minimal for predicting haplogroups. There are a few STR signatures that usually appear consistent at only 37 STRs, i.e. NW Irish, Irish III (off the top of my head.) However, these signatures probably only very reliable predictors for less than 5% (at most) R1b haplotypes.

    It looks like your matches screen has no closer GDs at 37 than 3. That's not that good at 37 STRs. If you had a couple of 37/37 type matches or every 36/37 all with the same haplogroup labels that might be telling. If not, 67 STRs might tell you something and worst case is it sets you up well in the matching database.

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    Thanks Mikewww.

    I will probably order R1b SNP Pack, instead of more STRs. What do you think about this?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww
    This probably won't sound appealing but you might consider upgrading to 67 STRs. In the R1b project we actually recommend 111 now but consider 67 minimal for predicting haplogroups.
    But can 37 markers at least tell me if I'm R1b-L51+, and if so, then if I'm P312 or U106?

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    My matches at 12 markers from Poland and Czech Republic were mostly R1b-P312-U152-L2.

    So I thought that I'm probably L2, but now I'm not so convinced about it anymore.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww
    It looks like your matches screen has no closer GDs at 37 than 3. That's not that good at 37 STRs.
    But probability of sharing an ancestor with them within last 24 generations, is still given as close to 100%.

    Is this a reliable estimate of probability, or is it possible that in fact we don't share an ancestor?

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    What subclade do the Chisholms belong to?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    STRs (in FTDNA order):

    Panel 1 - 13 24 14 10 11-14 12 12 11 13 13 29
    Panel 2 - 17 9-9 11 11 26 15 19 32 15-15-17-17
    Panel 3 - 10 11 19-23 15 15 18 17 36-37 12 12
    Although this doesn't mean much, you are less likely to be L23+Z2103 due to your first value (13 instead of 12) and more likely to be P312+ instead of U106+ due to your second value (24 instead of 23). But again, there are thousand of examples that make this kind of analysis meaningless. Unlike Mike, I have very little desire to upgrade to 111, especially if not looking for a more recent ancestor. If I were you I would get the 67 marker test and then the SNP pack.
    Paternal: R1b-U152 >> L2 >> FGC10543 >> PR5365, Pietro Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Galicia, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain
    Paternal Great (x3) Grandfather: R1b-U106 >> L48 >> CTS2509, Filippo Ensabella, b.~1836, Agira, Sicily, Italy

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