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Thread: Z253 (L21>DF13>Z253) includes Irish III & IV and Iberian

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    Z253 (L21>DF13>Z253) includes Irish III & IV and Iberian

    Z253 is probably the most geographically spread subclade of L21. L226, the Irish III/Dalcassian marker is downstream but so is L1066, which is a superset of Irish IV/Continental people. This subclade is widely spread all the way to Switzerland. Also, we have parts of Z253, like DF73, that are clearly Iberian. If there is a subclade of L21 that elicits memories of the Milesian legend, this is it.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%ADl_Esp%C3%A1ine

    Here is the Z253 project.
    http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R-Z253/
    Last edited by TigerMW; 05-15-2013 at 01:25 PM.

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    Well let alone the fact that Z253 was originally found in a 1000 genomes samples that had Iberian origin. I believe first two Z253+ were taken from a Mexican-American sample (origin LA) and the other was somewhere in south America.

    However as an Irishman it would be nice if people didn't bring Míl into it. "Son's of Míl" is a nice poetic term but it's all just part of an 8th century process of synthesizing history.

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    I know that mark jost has estimated the TMrCA of Z253 as c. 3 to 4K BP. Does that make sense re: the distribution of Z253? My YSearch is z5hg3, I and one other entry are distinctly different haplotypes than the other entries. Using Klyosovs method and his 22 slow markers, of which I have 3, I would estimate my TMRCA as 12K + BP using his set of data. It is clear to me that a major bottleneck occurred and a recent report identifies a major disaster c. 10 to 12K BP. Thus, I am left with the question of how valuable is the modal concept in the face of a disaster when many haplotypes are terminated and only after a long period of time does the population build up begin with new, and later, STR values. It seems to me that the modal value is of little use in estimating SNP origin times when disasters/bottlenecks have occurred.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mcg11 View Post
    I know that mark jost has estimated the TMrCA of Z253 as c. 3 to 4K BP. Does that make sense re: the distribution of Z253? My YSearch is z5hg3, I and one other entry are distinctly different haplotypes than the other entries. Using Klyosovs method and his 22 slow markers, of which I have 3, I would estimate my TMRCA as 12K + BP using his set of data. It is clear to me that a major bottleneck occurred and a recent report identifies a major disaster c. 10 to 12K BP. Thus, I am left with the question of how valuable is the modal concept in the face of a disaster when many haplotypes are terminated and only after a long period of time does the population build up begin with new, and later, STR values. It seems to me that the modal value is of little use in estimating SNP origin times when disasters/bottlenecks have occurred.
    The TMRCA estimates from Mark J that you cite look consistent with other estimates he has done for SNPs upstream, like L21. They also look consistent with estimates for L21 by other people like Anatole Klyosov, Marko Heinilla, Tim Janzen, etc. We know Z253 can't be older than the L21 MRCA and the L21 MRCA can't be older than the P312 MRCA, etc.

    This is not to say that there not major disasters 10-12K ybp. It just doesn't look like the Z253 MRCA was around back then, not even close. Please note my emphasis on "MRCA" rather than the actual birth date of the SNP.

    If you have concerns about TMRCA estimates, STRs, methods, mutation rates etc. There is a thread already in place for that. Mark posts over there and I'm sure he'll respond.
    http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthre...p-SNP-counting

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    The bottleneck argument has always struck me as a form of special pleading. When a haplogroup or clade looks younger than you want it to be, just whip out a bottleneck and problem solved! The haplotypes only look younger because almost everybody died, you see.

    What gives the bottleneck argument its force is that such things are possible.

    The problem with it is that, despite the fact that it can never be proven, the bottleneck is regarded as an argument ender: Oh, well, there was a bottleneck; of course the Cro-Magnons were R1b.

    One argument I found compelling involves pointing out the relative variance of y haplogroup I versus R1b in Europe. If one uses the fudge factor with R1b, he has to use it on I, and the result is an age for I that strains credulity, something like 40k ybp or more, if I recall correctly.

    Or was the big bottleneck selective, targeting R1b and leaving I alone?
    Last edited by rms2; 05-22-2013 at 11:34 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    The bottleneck argument has always struck me as a form of special pleading. When a haplogroup or clade looks younger than you want it to be, just whip out a bottleneck and problem solved! The haplotypes only look younger because almost everybody died, you see.

    What gives the bottleneck argument its force is that such things are possible.

    The problem with it is that, despite the fact that it can never be proven, the bottleneck is regarded as an argument ender: Oh, well, there was a bottleneck; of course the Cro-Magnons were R1b.

    One argument I found compelling involves pointing out the relative variance of y haplogroup I versus R1b in Europe. If one uses the fudge factor with R1b, he has to use it on I, and the result is an age for I that strains credulity, something like 40k ybp or more, if I recall correctly.

    Or was the big bottleneck selective, targeting R1b and leaving I alone?
    I can't deny that the bottleneck appears to be a crutch. Further I is probably older than R1b and man has probably been in Europe 40K years or so. Also, wrt to MIke's comment I don't want to deviate from the subject: Z253. Either I assert something I can't support or I look for clues. One clue is using Klyosov's slow mutators method. There is simply no denying I have three slow mutators with two of them over the 67 STR mark; 388, 632 and 495. He is a controversial source but he does try to publish.

    The other clue is the Iberian connection and what does that mean? If Iberia is the origin, what is the timeline to the Isles? Migrations have recently been discussed on rootsweb and Australian Aborigines are believed to have travelled a thousand miles or more in a matter of months. Prior to about 5 to 6k BC, Britain to Spain was a continuous land mass. Climactic conditions were improving about the time of the end of the last Ice age and game moved north as the food supply increased, followed by the hunter gatherers. There is evidence of man living in caves in England in this period of time. The question is who were they? Another claimant of older time periods for early R!b is Maliclavelli. Again, he doesn't follow the tide and is criticized severely for his proposals. I'm not so sure he is all wrong, some of his arguments make sense to me.

    I reiterate that I am suspicious of the present time lines which appear to be accepted by you and Mike, more readily than I would expect. I am searching for other ways to date Z253. To do that we have to put R -L21 further back in time. Why does R - L21 appear as a source point for so many different sub-clades. I think that the word bottleneck is as good as any term in describing the events that occurred c. P312 and its major subclades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mcg11 View Post
    ... Either I assert something I can't support or I look for clues. One clue is using Klyosov's slow mutators method. There is simply no denying I have three slow mutators with two of them over the 67 STR mark; 388, 632 and 495.
    That's three out of 111 or two of 67. If you choose to focus only a couple of STRs that is tantamount to cherry picking the data to make the data fit the theory. Statistics, like TMRCA base estimates, are only useful for groups of data. They are just averages and not useful for applying down at the individual level or with very restricted data sets. Most scientists seek more data so that anomalies will wash out in the law of large numbers. That's seems like the more objective thing to do rather than look at smaller data sets.

    Quote Originally Posted by mcg11
    The other clue is the Iberian connection and what does that mean? If Iberia is the origin, what is the timeline to the Isles?
    I haven't heard anyone propose that Z253 originated in the Iberia. Having some folks from a group spill over into Iberia and therefore connecting does not necessarily imply origination. I can only find six Z253+ people of Iberian descent. Four of them are from STR signature 253-2534-1211 so there does not look like a lot of diversity for Z253 there. Of the ones who can specify a region, they are from Northern Spain and a couple look to be Basques.
    Meanwhile we have hundreds of Z253+ from the British Isles and find Z253+ scattered across the continent too.

    Quote Originally Posted by mcg11
    Another claimant of older time periods for early R!b is Maliclavelli.
    You must believe in the evolutionary mutation rates for that to be possible and you must also explain how haplogroup I can be so much older, too old for the first modern men (the Cro-Magnons) of Europe. A good thread to dispute germ-line rates and support evolutionary rates is the "STR Wars" thread. That is not specific to Z253 so we should discuss that there. I'll start up a thread in R1b General on R1b "Paleolithic" so you can post on that there.

    Quote Originally Posted by mcg11
    Again, he doesn't follow the tide and is criticized severely for his proposals. I'm not so sure he is all wrong, some of his arguments make sense to me.
    He is Rathna on this forum. He has his own thread "Rathna's assessment..." in R1b Early Subclades that gets into some of these topics. Please post over there on his theories. He is quite willing to converse on his themes.

    Quote Originally Posted by mcg11
    Why does R - L21 appear as a source point for so many different sub-clades. I think that the word bottleneck is as good as any term in describing the events that occurred c. P312 and its major subclades.
    Bottlenecks don't make the Z253 MRCA older than the bottleneck, they just mean the SNP could have come earlier than the bottleneck, but you then have a tough time explaining why DF13 is only slightly older than Z253 and L21 only slightly older than DF13 and so on as the SNP Z253 could not have come before the SNP DF13.

    There is no problem with the number of SNPs we are finding. Scientists have estimated there is a new SNP on the Y chromosome every 1.5 generations or so for every father-son transmission. They are happening all of the time! Speaking as the moderator, please let's move your STR and SNP discussions over to the "STR Wars" thread. Let's keep the generic Y chromosome topics on generic threads, like the "STR Wars" thread.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 05-23-2013 at 01:18 PM.

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    Hello, I'm new to the forum and thread. It seems appropriate that I post here first as I am Z253+ My kit is f169385 and I am a member of the L21+ and Z253+ projects. My STR is a bit unusual in L21+ as I have DYS426=13. However my closest match at 111 markers is a Mr. Walls (I'm 5 steps away) (he is kit f98649) (...and he's DYS426=12).

    I have ordered some downstream testing of Z253 and I think that it's likely that I'll end up L1066+

    On the contemporary side of things, I have traced my heredity back seven generations (to a Moore born in Pennsylvania in the mid 1700's). However there is some speculation that a Wallace shared some DNA with a Moore wife in the early 1800's. (this is a potential link to Mr. Walls, as Walls is a variant of Wallace).

    But if we keep with the Moore side of things and depending upon what you want to believe (questionable sources), ancestor Moore was born in England in 1584.

    Unfortunately, Mr. Walls heredity is only traceable a few generations.

    I find the deep ancestry research equally as interesting as the genealogical research. Although the ancient side of things is relatively new to me. Hopefully we'll be able to meet in the middle.

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    Dan, your off-modal STRs place you in variety 253-1121 in Mike's spreadsheet. Therefore I don't expect you to be L1066+, as at least one person in this variety, Rawlings 117152, has tested L1066- and Z2185- (L1066 is downstream from Z2185). Also, another person in 253-1121, Heffernan 219896, has tested Z2534- (Z2185 is downstream from Z2534). Therefore, assuming that this variety holds up, I expect that you will also be Z2534-, so I wouldn't test for L1066 yet.
    253-1121 is interesting, as it is geographically diverse, with members from Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands, as well as the Isles. It also has some fairly high GDs; your GD to Heffernan is 17 at 67 markers and 24 at 111 markers. Yet the off-modal STR results are very consistent in those who are proven Z253+.
    Within 253-1121, your closest matches at 67 markers are 6 to Vennemoe (Boen) 229805 and 7 to Longacre 6475 (both of whom are Scandinavian), and you also have a GD=6 to Larsson 278356, who matches the STR signature but hasn't tested for Z253. Do you have any known Scandinavian connection?
    I've located Walls' results in the Wall Surname Project and he matches beautifully on all the off-modals for 253-1121 as well, so I'm confident he'll also be Z253+.

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    No known Scandinavian connection.

    Walls has joined the Z253 project and has a Z253 test pending. His line peters out in just a few generations with the oldest (well-sourced) ancestor being born in North America.

    I do have a close match on ancestry.com's service (it might be closer than Walls), with the Moore surname. Unfortunately I haven't found the connection, but his ancestor is from Ireland (b. 1830).

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