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Thread: M73 - the best proxy for what R1b was doing 8000 years ago?

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    but we should try to understand the details of Klyosov's aging for M73.... if we are relying on it.
    I am not the only one who feels that it would be a mistake to rely on any dating by this author. Tim Janzen posted on Nov 23, 2010 in the thread lgmayka drew our attention to:
    Even though Anatole's approach is different, I would like to point out that he gets very similar TMRCA estimates to those I get using the variance method.
    The response by Vincent Vizachero:

    Even when the final answer seems roughly correct, I don't think that puts the method above criticism. For example, in the recent Cruciani et al. paper they got a TMRCA estimate for R-V88 that is roughly correct even though their method and their sampling were BOTH terrible. It just so happened that the two errors drove the estimate in opposite directions by roughly the same amount. The errors cancelled each other out, so to speak. Scientists should get no credit for luck, in my book.

    In this particular case, if you are going to use intraclade variance then you have to be extremely careful about which haplotypes you include and exclude as members of the clade. Anatole has not, in my experience, been very diligent about this in the past and this lack of diligence has led to some unsupportable claims (e.g. "ancient" presence of R1b in the Altai).

    Anatole has also employed some disturbingly unreasonable assumptions about the independence of mutations in his haplotype pools, which leads to severely underestimated confidence intervals. Many readers of this list do not have the time or energy to verify these estimates personally, and my fear is that they will see these exaggerated claims of accuracy and precision and put MORE faith in them than in the more honest and circumspect claims of folks like you, Ken, Dienekes, and others.
    http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.co...-11/1290544885
    Last edited by Jean M; 05-31-2013 at 01:03 PM.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jean M View Post
    I am not the only one who feels that it would be a mistake to rely on any dating by this author.
    That makes two of us. I think the only thing we can say for sure is that based on variance, M73 seems to be a good deal older than M269.
    Paternal: R1b-U152 >> L2 >> FGC10543, Pietro della Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Galicia, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain
    Paternal Great (x3) Grandfather: R1b-U106 >> L48 >> CTS2509, Filippo Ensabella, b.~1836, Agira, Sicily, Italy

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard A. Rocca View Post
    That makes two of us. I think the only thing we can say for sure is that based on variance, M73 seems to be a good deal older than M269.
    Many things should be taken in consideration for deciding this. Why I-M26 in Sardinia is thought so recent as to the recent paper of Boattini et al.?
    It is possible that it, the most diffused haplogroup of Sardinia (isolated from at least 9000 years), has only 5153 YBP, and why cluster 1 is only 1207 years old and cluster 2 is 5695? And why Sardinian clusters are different from the Iberian ones, demonstrating a far separation?
    But of course because the most part of clusters go extinct as time passes and only a few survive. After so long only one. For this we should think the other way around as to the variance: less variance could also mean more ancientness. The same happens with surnames. China has a few surname, because they use it from so long. Italy 350,000, and Italians are less than 5 percent of Chinese.
    The same happened with R-M73: Asia has 2 clusters, actually 1, only because a cluster had a multistep mutation in DYS390. Western Europe has many different haplotypes, two also in Italy, and I think having demonstrated that they were born in Europe, even though the Asian R-M73 are more. But probably they were carried there by the Tocharians, IE language of the centum group, then probably of Western European origin.
    Last edited by Rathna; 05-31-2013 at 04:41 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard A. Rocca View Post
    That makes two of us. I think the only thing we can say for sure is that based on variance, M73 seems to be a good deal older than M269.
    Could be, but if we include wide confidence margins, they overlap. At least the estimated dates I have for M269 are: 4-8000 ya (V.V.), 5-8000 ya (Arredi), 6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen). These estimates may not be the latest from V.V. and T.J. I think I noted them down a couple of years ago.

    We can see from the thread in 2010 that a date of c. 7000 y.a. was calculated for M73 by V.V. and others.
    Last edited by Jean M; 05-31-2013 at 05:30 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jean M View Post
    Could be, but if we include wide confidence margins, they overlap. At least the estimated dates I have for M269 are: 4-8000 ya (V.V.), 5-8000 ya (Arredi), 6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen). These estimates may not be the latest from V.V. and T.J. I think I noted them down a couple of years ago.

    We can see from the thread in 2010 that a date of c. 7000 y.a. was calculated for M73 by V.V. and others.
    I think the specific problem with M73 was the use of multi-step mutations in an STR used for AK's calculations that may have throw his calculations out a bit. That said, I did AK not only suggest a date for M73 of 8000ya? That is a bit older but nothing huge. It was P297 overall he placed around 10000 years ago. Given all of that I am inclined now to believe the 7000ya date. The most interesting aspect of this is that all three major R1b superclades (M269, M73 and V88)appear to have come into existence/started some sort of expansion around the same sort of 4-5000BC timeframe despite their contrasting distribution. Its not that big a surprise to me that M269 and M73 expanded at broadly similar periods because they did share an ancestor c. 10000 years ago but its interesting that V88 also had a similar expansion time despite it not sharing a common ancestor with M269 and M73 since the Palaeolithic. Perhaps all three clades remained in the same zone and subject to the same conditions/pressures/opportunities until 5000BC/4000BC (ish). I find the possibility very interesting that Maykop and a whole wide horizon expanded c. 4000BC or so from the Iran Plateau and adjacent south central Asia (see my monologue thread lol) from an area where the Neolithic is only attested from the 6th millenium and which led to an advanced copper age with widespread contacts and influence. The position seems a good one to explain M73, M269 and V88 without too much geographical jumping through hoops.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    I think the specific problem with M73 was the use of multi-step mutations in an STR used for AK's calculations that may have throw his calculations out a bit.
    Yes lgmayka pointed that out above, and I read the thread to which he helpfully referred us. I was making a more general point. You can see from that thread, and indeed from the points made by several persons in the thread you started on A.K.'s work, that his calculations have been questioned on several occasions for a range of reasons over the last few years. This is not an isolated instance of a problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jean M View Post
    Yes lgmayka pointed that out above, and I read the thread to which he helpfully referred us. I was making a more general point. You can see from that thread, and indeed from the points made by several persons in the thread you started on A.K.'s work, that his calculations have been questioned on several occasions for a range of reasons over the last few years. This is not an isolated instance of a problem.
    I think I have given up on him after his last paper. He seemed to be becoming more sensible in his interpretations as time passes but that last one was back to square one. I do like the way he looks at the cluster and subclusters within a clade and the same sort of geography and looks at the time separation between their base haplotypes. I think his technique is OK and seems to produce very similar results to the more mainstream variance crunchers except where he overlooks some factor such as with M73. Its a shame he tends to react badly to criticism instead of taking it on board. .

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    Here are the 13 Hts from MikeW's R1b-Early.

    Intraclade Founder's Modal Age
    R1b -Early x-M73 N=13
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    67(50)Markers Using MCM's
    Gen 368.9 +-46.2
    @30year per Gen 11,068.2 +-1,386.0 Ybp

    67(25) Bird's q Stable STRs

    Gen 380.9 +-63.4
    @30year per Gen 11,428.4 +- 1,902.7 Ybp

    Kazakhstan core, maybe?

    MJost

    England IS Eng z unk
    France EW Fra z unk
    Italy EE East Mediterranean
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Luxembourg EW Low Countries
    Spain EW Iberian Peninsula
    Uzbekistan EE Asia Southwest
    zzCountry zzRegion
    zzCountry IS z unk
    zzCountry zzRegion
    148326, FGC-0FW1R, YSID6 & YF3272 R-DF13>FGC5494>*7448>*5496>*5521>*5511>*5539>*5538>* 5508>*5524
     
    Watterson USA GD1/67 & GD3/111, *5508+. GD1ís fatherís sister-23andme pred. 3rd Cous w/ 0.91% DNA shared-3 seg. Largest on Chr1 w/non-Euro admix affirms my NPE paternal Watterson line via aDNA & YDNA. A 2nd pred. 4th cous has same DKA b. 1840's Georgia and MDKA d 1703 IOM. 3rd Cousin FtDNA FF is from the Watterson Ala. *5538+ b. IOM w/ GD6/67 & GD8/111 -SGD3. FGC5539+ a Scot-Ross GD13/111 -SGD8

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  10. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJost View Post
    Here are the 13 Hts from MikeW's R1b-Early.

    Intraclade Founder's Modal Age
    R1b -Early x-M73 N=13
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    67(50)Markers Using MCM's
    Gen 368.9 +-46.2
    @30year per Gen 11,068.2 +-1,386.0 Ybp

    67(25) Bird's q Stable STRs

    Gen 380.9 +-63.4
    @30year per Gen 11,428.4 +- 1,902.7 Ybp

    Kazakhstan core, maybe?

    MJost

    England IS Eng z unk
    France EW Fra z unk
    Italy EE East Mediterranean
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Kazakhstan EE Asia Southwest
    Luxembourg EW Low Countries
    Spain EW Iberian Peninsula
    Uzbekistan EE Asia Southwest
    zzCountry zzRegion
    zzCountry IS z unk
    zzCountry zzRegion
    I am understanding this? Is this R1b early with M73? What is R1b early in normal clade terms? That is a very early date indeed.

  11. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    I am understanding this? Is this R1b early with M73? What is R1b early in normal clade terms? That is a very early date indeed.
    Walsh has a R1b and Subclades Gateway Project for R1b (M343+) Y DNA Haplogroup (includes M269) [explained below] found at: http://www.familytreedna.com/public/r1b/

    and a Yahoo forum at: http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/R1b-YDNA/

    where he has a file link to his Nov 2012 spreadsheet file named:

    Haplotype Data for R1b Early Branches
    Haplotype Data for R1b confirmed haplotypes for subclades that are P312- U106-. P312 and U106 are the two very large European subclades of R1b so this file is all of the rest. M269*, V88, M335, M73, L23*, L51*, L584, L277 are all included. This is on the AllHts tab. The data comes from public FTDNA project pages, Ysearch, some from posters blogging the latest results. The 111 STR haplotypes are on the ExtHts tab. Informational Clades/Varieties, Rates and Locations tab/worksheets are also included. - M.W.
    https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1...Haplotypes.zip

    MJost
    148326, FGC-0FW1R, YSID6 & YF3272 R-DF13>FGC5494>*7448>*5496>*5521>*5511>*5539>*5538>* 5508>*5524
     
    Watterson USA GD1/67 & GD3/111, *5508+. GD1ís fatherís sister-23andme pred. 3rd Cous w/ 0.91% DNA shared-3 seg. Largest on Chr1 w/non-Euro admix affirms my NPE paternal Watterson line via aDNA & YDNA. A 2nd pred. 4th cous has same DKA b. 1840's Georgia and MDKA d 1703 IOM. 3rd Cousin FtDNA FF is from the Watterson Ala. *5538+ b. IOM w/ GD6/67 & GD8/111 -SGD3. FGC5539+ a Scot-Ross GD13/111 -SGD8

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